| CURATED for Agents | Inflation Jumps to 3.7%, Sellers Outnumber Buyers by a Record 63% & a Redfin Economist Calls an October Hike 50/50 |
WEDNESDAY · OCTOBER 14, 2026 We read the real estate day so you don’t have to. Here are the 10 stories worth your attention—and the takes forming around them. |
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| 👋 Agents. Inflation jumped to 3.7 percent in September.
A Realtor.com economist says the recent rise in rates cost buyers 7.2 percent of their purchasing power. Redfin estimates there were 62.6 percent more sellers than buyers in September, the biggest gap in records dating back to 2013. Redfin’s head of economics research puts the odds of an October Fed hike at 50/50. Mortgage applications fell 2.7 percent as the ARM share rose to 10.5 percent. And Compass added longtime Google executive Sissie Hsiao to its board. Let’s get into all of it.
Enjoy, — CURATED. |
| 1st TakeInflation Jumped to 3.7% in September as Gas Prices SurgedThe Quick TakeConsumer prices rose 3.7 percent in the 12 months through September, up from 3.4 percent in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Realtor.com senior economist Jake Krimmel says the consensus was for headline inflation of 3.6 percent. Prices rose 0.6 percent in the month, driven by a 9.1 percent surge in gasoline prices. Shelter costs were up 3.2 percent from a year ago. Read more →Why You’ll Feel ItThe Fed’s next vote on rates is Oct. 28. Krimmel says the recent 74-basis-point rise in mortgage rates equals a 7.2 percent loss in purchasing power. On a 2,000-dollar monthly budget for principal and interest, buying power drops by 22,000 dollars. Vanguard thinks the Fed will hold in October but could hike in December. | 📊 The Takes
Rerunning every buyer budget comes first, a good share shrug at a headline driven by gas, and others brief sellers on lost buying power before pricing.
🧮 Reruns the Numbers — ‘A buyer who qualified in August may not qualify now. I am rerunning every budget before we tour.’
⛽ Shrugs at the Headline — ‘Gas drove this number, not housing. I am not changing my advice over one report.’
🏷 Briefs Sellers First — ‘Buyers lost real buying power when rates jumped. My sellers hear that before we set a price.’ |
| 2nd TakeHome Sellers Outnumber Buyers by 63%, the Biggest Gap in Records Dating to 2013The Quick TakeRedfin estimates there were 62.6 percent more home sellers than buyers in September, the biggest gap in records dating back to 2013. It is the fourth record-breaking month in a row, up from 56.9 percent in August. Buyers fell to an estimated 928,892, the lowest on record. Sellers rose to an estimated 1,510,784, the most since March 2020. Read more →The Bigger PictureOf the 50 most populous metros, 41 are buyer’s markets, the most on record, led by Miami, Nashville, and Houston. Miami had 158.9 percent more sellers than buyers. Just five are seller’s markets, led by Nassau County, New York. | 📊 The Takes
Buyer agents ask for credits on every offer, listing agents prep sellers for a longer wait, and some tell ready buyers to move now.
🤝 Asks for Credits — ‘My buyers have options right now. We are asking for credits and repairs on every offer.’
⏳ Preps Sellers to Wait — ‘With this many listings, I tell sellers to expect more time on the market and to price for it.’
🏃 Tells Buyers to Move — ‘Buyers with a budget and a steady job hold the leverage. I tell them to use it now.’ |
| 3rd TakeCore Inflation Topped Forecasts, and a Redfin Economist Puts an October Fed Hike at 50/50The Quick TakeCore inflation, which excludes food and energy, came in at 0.34 percent in September against 0.22 percent expected, writes Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economics research. She says owners’ equivalent rent, hotels, and wireless drove much of it. Zhao puts the odds of a Fed rate hike in two weeks at 50/50. She expects mortgage rates to give back some of last week’s improvements. Read more →What’s at StakeProducer price data comes next. Zhao says if the estimate for core PCE, the Fed’s gauge, rounds to 0.4 percent, the Fed may find it difficult not to hike at its October 28th meeting. If it holds and the number lands there, she says long-term rates may jump again. | 📊 The Takes
Locking now beats a coin flip for the biggest group, some stress-test the payment at a higher rate, and a smaller camp floats into the October 28th meeting.
🔒 Locks Now — ‘Last week’s dip was the gift. I am not floating a buyer into a 50/50 Fed meeting.’
🧪 Stress-Tests the Payment — ‘Buyers cannot plan around a coin flip. I show them the payment at a higher rate and let them decide.’
🌊 Floats to the Meeting — ‘Half the odds say no hike. I would rather see what the Fed does before my buyer locks.’ |
| 4th TakeMortgage Applications Fell 2.7% as the ARM Share Hit Its Highest Since October 2025The Quick TakeMortgage applications fell 2.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in the latest Mortgage Bankers Association survey, after a 4.2 percent drop the week before. The 30-year fixed rate was 7.5 percent, the highest since November 2023, said Joel Kan, the group’s vice president and deputy chief economist. He says borrowers continue to rely more on adjustable-rate loans. Their share of applications rose to 10.5 percent from 10.3 percent. Read more →What This MeansKan says the ARM share is at its highest level since October 2025. The average 5/1 ARM rate rose from the week before to 6.54 percent. That is still almost a full percentage point below the 30-year rate. An ARM rate is fixed for an initial period, typically five years, then changes annually. | 📊 The Takes
Showing ARM and fixed payments side by side leads, some agents make the case for the lower ARM rate, and a firm group sticks with fixed.
💵 Shows Both Payments — ‘I put the ARM payment next to the fixed one for every buyer now. They deserve to see both.’
📉 Makes the ARM Case — ‘Almost a full point lower is real money. For a buyer moving within five years, the ARM fits.’
🛡 Sticks With Fixed — ‘Five years goes fast. I do not want a buyer betting that rates fall before the reset.’ |
| 5th TakeCompass Adds Sissie Hsiao, Who Led Development of Google’s Gemini, to Its BoardThe Quick TakeCompass has appointed longtime Google executive Sissie Hsiao to its board as it leans further into AI and advertising-driven growth, HousingWire reports. Compass announced the move Wednesday. It says that during nearly two decades at Google, she led the development of Google’s AI tool Gemini and the Google App Ads app. CEO Robert Reffkin said her AI and advertising background is exactly what the board was looking for. Charles Phillips stepped down from the board. Read more →What’s ChangingPhillips had been lead independent director since February 2021. Compass said his departure was not due to any disagreement with the company. Frank Martell will succeed him in that role. Compass has positioned its platform as an AI operating system for agents and consumers. | 📊 The Takes
Better AI tools top the wish list, others watch the ad push, and some ignore boardroom moves.
🤖 Wants Better Tools — ‘If the person who led development of Gemini makes my tools better, great. That is the part I care about.’
📢 Watches the Ad Push — ‘Advertising-driven growth has to come from somewhere. I want to know whether agents end up paying for it.’
🪑 Ignores the Boardroom — ‘Board seats do not sell houses. I will notice when something changes in my app.’ |
| 6th TakeBank of America’s Home Loan Volume Fell 12% in the Third QuarterThe Quick TakeBank of America’s home loan production fell 12 percent from the prior quarter to 9.8 billion dollars in the third quarter, HousingWire reports. First-lien mortgages dropped to 6.8 billion dollars from 8.2 billion dollars. Home equity production rose slightly to 2.9 billion dollars. JPMorgan Chase originated 16 billion dollars, down 7 percent, and Wells Fargo produced 7.8 billion dollars, down 13 percent. Read more →Why It MattersAnalysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods said bank volumes fell fairly in line with industry estimates. The Mortgage Bankers Association had projected an 8.5 percent drop. They wrote that it remains unclear whether banks are continuing to take share from nonbanks. | 📊 The Takes
Shopping a second quote is the common advice, loyalty to an on-time lender runs close behind, and some steer staying owners toward home equity.
🏦 Sends Buyers Shopping — ‘I tell every buyer to get a second quote. One lender is not the whole market.’
📆 Sticks With One Lender — ‘I need a lender who closes on time. I am not switching to save a few dollars.’
🔨 Talks Home Equity — ‘BofA’s home equity lending ticked up while first mortgages fell. I raise it with owners who would rather renovate than move.’ |
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